Can anybody catch Jimmie Johnson?
By: Drew Hierwarter
A few weeks ago I wrote in this very space that I thought NASCAR should just go ahead and cut the championship check to Rick Hendrick right then and there. At the time it seemed obvious that either Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson had a lock on the title. Now, with only two races left in the Chase for the Championship I feel that they can include Jimmie Johnson’s name on that check too. It seems clear that this is Johnson’s championship to lose, and the odds of that happening are getting slimmer all the time. Here are some reasons why I think this championship fight is all but over.
Hendrick Motorsports in general, and the team of Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus in particular, have a well deserved reputation for being especially good at the end of the season. This is not by chance. These guys work it that way on purpose. From the very beginning they plan and work to be at their maximum potential for the last ten races of the year. They have a bigger point lead today then they did going into the final two races last year when they won their first championship. They have momentum, having won the last three races in a row. And even though several other drivers, most notably teammate Jeff Gordon, are mathematically within striking range, they all need some sort of calamity to befall the 48 team. Something that seems highly unlikely. Let’s look at the situation in detail.
Six of the twelve drivers in the “Chase” are now mathematically eliminated. The first driver with any chance at all is Tony Stewart, currently sixth in the points. For him to be champ, he must win both of the final two races and lead the most laps in both. But, he still would need for Jimmy Johnson to not even start both of those races. Like that will happen! It’s the same situation for Carl Edwards in fifth. So forget about either of those two guys being the champ this year.
Next in line is Kyle Busch. For him to be champ, he too must win at both Pheonix and Homestead and lead the most laps in both races. But he also needs Johnson to not start in one and finish 40th or worse in the other. Okay, forget Busch.
Clint Bowyer is in third place and everybody has been saying don’t count him out. Well, go ahead, count him out. If Clint Bowyer wins both races and leads the most laps Johnson must still average 22nd or worse for those two races if Clint is going to have a chance. Which car has been running up front most of the time lately, the 07 or the 48? Uh, huh, I thought so.
And that brings us to the second place guys, and the only team with a legitimate shot to beat the 48, Jeff Gordon’s. All Jeff has to do is finish nine positions ahead of Johnson in the final two races and the he will earn his fifth NASCAR title. Something that is actually within the realm of possibility. The only fly in that ointment is that Johnson has an average finish at Pheonix (7.2) that is one position better than Gordon (8.2). However, Gordon has won once at the Arizona track while Johnson has not, yet. Of course if Jeff Gordon can manage to win at Phoenix and at Homestead and lead the most laps in both races, then there is nothing Johnson can do and the title is Jeff’s.
Either way, it will be fun to watch these teammates and good friends battle it out to the final checkered flag in Florida in two weeks. And no matter which way it goes, Rick Hendrick will still be the one down at the bank with that big check after the championship banquet in New York.